Severe weather will be possible across much of Texas and Oklahoma with the enhanced risk region covering parts of Waco, Texas, Austin, Texas, and San Antonio. Strong winds, large hail and tornadoes will be possible Saturday in the region.
The storm will really begin to organize itself overnight Saturday into Sunday, and the contrast of warm moist air from the Gulf will interact with surging cold air from the north. This will cause the development of severe weather through the southern U.S.
Short-term forecast models are showing a couple of segments of thunderstorms moving through eastern Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana on Sunday morning. Some of these storms could become severe – including a potential tornado risk, in the morning Sunday.
Then on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, widespread thunderstorms will develop in the southern U.S. Cells that do form will have the potential to spawn tornadoes. In addition, all thunderstorms are likely to bring damaging winds.
The set up remains a little complex, and with uncertainty in the evolution of the storms, there is only moderate confidence in the precise area at risk for strong tornadoes. However, all forecasting tools are indicating that a significant tornado outbreak will occur on Easter Sunday – with a large moderate risk from Louisiana to Alabama.
In this moderate risk region, there is a chance for strong, long track tornadoes. Tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail will be possible from Texas to Virginia Sunday.
The Southern U.S. is not a stranger to April tornadoes, with Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama all averaging five, seven and nine tornadoes respectively. Additionally, some of the most intense tornadoes recorded in this region have occurred during the month of April.
The storm system will begin to congeal Sunday night and Monday, and bring widespread heavy rain and storms across much of the eastern U.S. As storms move into the northeast, there is a potential that heavy rain will mix down strong winds.
There is potential for a significant wind event in the northeast Sunday night into Monday. Although winds may not be from a true severe thunderstorm, they can be equally impactful from a larger scale weather system.
Additionally, severe storms will be possible from Florida to Maryland, where additional damaging winds, large hail and brief tornadoes.
Finally, 3 to 4 inches of rain is expected in parts of the South stretching into the Appalachians through Tuesday, which means flash flooding will be possible in the hillier terrain of the southern Appalachians and Southern Tennessee Valley.
It will be possible that some regions are dealing with flash flooding and ongoing tornadic storms at the same time on Easter Sunday.